VIX term structure compares implied volatility across horizons: 9-day, 30-day, 3-month, and 6-month. In calm markets the curve slopes upward (contango). When short-dated volatility prices above long-dated (backwardation), the market is paying up for immediate protection, which historically marks stress.
An upward-sloping curve, with VIX9D below VIX below VIX3M, is the resting state: uncertainty accumulates with time, so longer horizons carry more implied volatility. An inverted curve means traders are bidding hardest for the nearest-dated protection, which happens when stress is happening now rather than being merely imaginable later.
Optionscanner reduces the curve to three regimes:
Backwardation coincides with the richest option premium, which is exactly when premium selling pays most, and with the fattest tails, which is exactly when it hurts most. A hard veto would skip the paid periods; full size would ignore the tail. Scaling size down as the curve inverts keeps the discipline in the market while bounding how much a tail event can cost. The regime is surfaced in the daily briefing and per-ticker context panel so the size adjustment is visible before an order is built, not discovered afterward.
The VIX regime bands read the level of 30-day volatility; the term structure reads its shape across time. The two disagree in informative ways: a VIX of 22 with a steep upward curve describes priced-in caution, while the same 22 in backwardation describes active stress. Level sets the posture, shape adjusts the size.
An upward-sloping curve, with VIX9D below VIX below VIX3M, is the resting state: uncertainty accumulates with time, so longer horizons carry more implied volatility. An inverted curve means traders are bidding hardest for the nearest-dated protection, which happens when stress is happening now rather than being merely imaginable later.
Backwardation coincides with the richest option premium, which is exactly when premium selling pays most, and with the fattest tails, which is exactly when it hurts most. A hard veto would skip the paid periods; full size would ignore the tail. Scaling size down as the curve inverts keeps the discipline in the market while bounding how much a tail event can cost.
The VIX regime bands read the level of 30-day volatility; the term structure reads its shape across time. The two disagree in informative ways: a VIX of 22 with a steep upward curve describes priced-in caution, while the same 22 in backwardation describes active stress. Level sets the posture, shape adjusts the size.
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